Overview
Use these resources to learn when an aurora display is forecast! Northern Minnesota is one of the best areas to view the Aurora in the continental United States due to its proximity to magnetic north (northern Hudson Bay). This web page lists resources that will help you predict whether the Northern Lights will dance across the skies from 30 minutes to 28 days out from the current time. A map to one of my favorite Northern Lights viewing locations which is a bit north of Duluth may be found at the very bottom of this post.
Current Aurora Forecast
- Immediate Forecast
- Time frame is the next one hour
- Uses Ovation Aurora … want 45 Ghz or higher in NE Minnesota
- Short Term Forecast
- Time frame is the next 3 days or less
- Want Kp index of 5+ in NE Minnesota. Much easier to use recommended app. See below for app recommendation and review.
- Anything beyond 72 hours is NOT reliable
Use this tool to convert UT to your local time zone. (UT = Universal Time)
Northern Lights Apps
I recommend using Aurora-Alerts which is available for both Apple and Android devices. See my full review on this blog with screenshots. However, the app provides Aurora forecasts, current conditions, and alerts.
- Recommended App: Aurora-Alerts (no financial benefit to me)
- Install Links: Aurora-Alerts Web Site
- My Review (with screenshots)
Forecasting the Northern Lights!
- Long Term Forecast (4 to 28 days from today, not very reliable)
- The Northern Lights tend to follow the 28 day solunar cycle. If there was solar activity at a particular time during the past cycle (28 days ago), long term forecasts will predict similar activity when that region of the sun again points at the earth 28 days later. Long term Aurora forecasts are NOT reliable, but if you are planning a trip and hoping to optimize your viewing chances, this resource from the University of Alaska is worth utilizing. Ultimately you want to see a rating (Kp) of “5” or higher for viewing in Northern Minnesota.
- 28 Day Advanced Northern Lights Forecast
- Planning Your Northern Lights Trip (i.e. choosing dates)
- The Northern Lights tend to follow the 28 day solunar cycle. If there was solar activity at a particular time during the past cycle (28 days ago), long term forecasts will predict similar activity when that region of the sun again points at the earth 28 days later. Long term Aurora forecasts are NOT reliable, but if you are planning a trip and hoping to optimize your viewing chances, this resource from the University of Alaska is worth utilizing. Ultimately you want to see a rating (Kp) of “5” or higher for viewing in Northern Minnesota.
- Short Term Forecast (1 to 3 days from today, kind of reliable)
- NOAA (The National Weather Service) maintains a graph which tracks Aurora watches and warnings. The page is a bit difficult to understand, but just remember these key points: Watches & Warning are good. Kp of “5” or higher is good.
- SpaceWeather Live maintains a forecast for Aurora conditions expected over the next 72 hours. Times are in UTC, which must be converted to your local time zone. For the Central Time Zone UTC varies from local time by 5 or 6 hours (daylight or standard time). Once again, for Northern Minnesota you want a Kp of “5” or higher.
- Immediate Forecast (current to 24 hours, very reliable)
- Ovation Aurora forecasts the likelihood of viewing the Aurora approximately within the next 60 minutes. Upon linking to the site, you will see a image of the northern hemisphere. I like power numbers greater than 50 GW (see upper right hand corner of map). If you see lots of bright colors (reds and oranges), and power readings way above 50 GW, get outside and look north! Pay attention to trends (i.e. increasing or decreasing power numbers noted over a few hours)
- Ovation Aurora (NOAA)
- Ovation Aurora forecasts the likelihood of viewing the Aurora approximately within the next 60 minutes. Upon linking to the site, you will see a image of the northern hemisphere. I like power numbers greater than 50 GW (see upper right hand corner of map). If you see lots of bright colors (reds and oranges), and power readings way above 50 GW, get outside and look north! Pay attention to trends (i.e. increasing or decreasing power numbers noted over a few hours)
Question and Answer: Why are long term forecasts unreliable, but short term forecasts are decent? A short term forecast of 72 hours or less is based upon actual observed current conditions on the surface of the sun. Coronal Mass Ejections (CME’s) often take up to 72 hours to reach earth. CME’s tend to cause Aurora displays. Measuring CME’s is an inexact science. Obviously it is impossible to stand on the surface of the sun to measure a CME. Questions arise about CME size, strength, direction/angle, etc. NASA and NOAA attempt to measure CME’s using satellites and telescopes. Thus, while short term forecasting is MUCH better than long term forecasts, it is still problematic. Long term forecasts are based upon the last time a particular spot on the sun was pointed towards earth (i.e. something that happened up to 28 days ago in the past)
Immediate Forecasts are very good and use Ovation Aurora which measures current conditions on earth and makes predictions for 20 to 40 minutes in the future.
A Quick Timeout … Would you like to download a free PDF copy of my latest children’s picture book, Do You Hoot? The book is the story of the Amity Owlets. I watched the parents raise triplets recently near my home at the northern edge of Duluth.
Viewing the Aurora Borealis
In order to see the Northern Lights you need dark, cloud free skies with open views to the North and Northeast. Nights with lots of moonlight will tend to “wash out” the aurora. Also avoid areas south of even small towns.
This graphic is from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration … the U.S. Weather Service). It is NOT a forecast. Instead, assuming other conditions are also favorable it shows the southern limit of where the Northern Lights may be viewed assuming a given Kp forecast.
You will find a map to Boulder Lake near the bottom of this post … a favorite viewing location just north of Duluth, Minnesota.
- Dark Skies Map: Open the link and zoom into the desired area. The linked site will help you find truly dark locations, and avoid light pollution. Remember, even in the darkest location, a bright moon makes viewing the Aurora difficult. Check the moon phase!
- Google Maps: Public boat launches and lakeshores with open views tend to be great viewing locations. Use Satellite mode, zoom in an really inspect your hoped for viewing location. Better yet, check out areas during the day for open views to the North and Northeast.
- Weather: Cloud Forecasts
Connect With Aurora Enthusiasts (Amateur to Pro)
- Facebook Group – Great Lakes Aurora Hunters: Want to learn more about aurora camera settings, or know when the lights are shining over Canada and the Great Lakes region? This Facebook group will hook you up with Northern Lights enthusiasts with a very large geographic focus … the Great Lakes.
- Facebook Group – Northern Lights | Lake Superior Region: A smaller, more geographically focused version of the Facebook group listed immediately above!
Photographing the Northern Lights
Northern Minnesota has the best Aurora watching opportunities in the lower forty-eight states. In addition, our region has extensive wilderness where one may escape light pollution found in urban areas which wash out displays. With a little advance planning, it is possible to photograph the Aurora.
- Camera Settings: Use these settings as a starting point and then adjust based upon results. Adjust your exposure and ISO settings up or down to affect how much light your camera’s sensor captures. Remember, higher ISO settings yield more noise in your photographs and blow out images by capturing too much light. Finally, the earth is rotating at thousands of miles per hour underneath you. Exposure settings much longer than 20 seconds will tend to smudge your stars and give you star trails. Longer exposure times also make it difficult to capture Aurora spikes or rays. These settings assume little to no moonlight.
. - Aperture: 2.0 (or as wide open as possible on your camera)
- Exposure: 10 seconds
- Focus: infinite
- ISO: 2400
- White Balance: tungsten or auto
- Use of a tripod is a “must”
- Use a 2 second shutter release delay
Here are a few of my own Northern Lights photos
Same Time Next Year Gang (Labor Day Reunion for 30+ years)
Map to Boulder Lake (Boulder Lake is a great Northern Lights viewing location and is a 35 minute drive north of Duluth)
Learn more about this web site and its content: 365DaysOfBirds.com
Will be in the Duluth Minnesota area Friday Oct 21 2022 thru Tues Oct 25 2022
When and where would be our best chance of seeing the Northern Lights from the Duluth area. Thanks!!!
See the Boulder Lake Map on this web page which you will find at the bottom of this page.
I am planning a trip to Tofte early August. I have been before but I seriously never knew the Aurora Borealis could be viewed from this area. I recently saw a post on one of the facebook pages with a photo of the Aurora taken a few days ago in Grand Marais. I have been a self-proclaimed amateur photographer for a while now but I have never taken night photos. I really appreciate all the great information you have provided here. I feel confident I will get some shots of at least the Milky Way. Looks like it will be a New Moon the time I go. I live at the southernmost tip of Texas so this will be a whole new experience for me. Thanks again.
Get a hold of a photo planning app to research some of your photography outings. However, some basic facts for night photography … public boat launches on remote lakes which face north are good for the Northern Lights, and south facing for the Milky Way. Avoid anything within 15 miles of even small towns … too much light pollution. For a photo planning app, I used PlanIt for Photographers. It costs a few dollars, but well worth the expense.
Hi,
My brother and I want to travel to Northern Minnesota in late February or early March. We are hoping to see the Aurora Borealis but realize it may not happen. We’d be happy to get some cool photos of stars and wildlife. Can you recommend a good town to use as a kind of home base. We will be in a 4 Runner and plan to drive out of any town to get better views. Also, do people camp up there in Feb or March?
Thanks,
Mike from Saint Louis
Northern Minnesota is special in the winter, but very darn cold. In the next seven days temperatures will hit the -40F which does include windchill. If you are not truly well versed in camping, I would “not” take on camping in the winter time. Having said that, most people who winter camp in the Boundary Waters wait till March for two basic reasons: 1) Even with severe cold, earlier in the winter the insulating snow cover often hides a layer of slush below it on area lakes. 2) By March normally the severe cold is past for any given winter, and the slush has frozen. My two sons are actually ski hiking from Ely to the Gunflint Trail in early March. Even though they are experienced outdoorsmen, they have chosen to wait till early March for their trek. They will be renting specialized winter gear from outfitters in Ely. With respect to star gazing (and maybe the Aurora), either Ely or Grand Marais are great towns which are entry points to the wilderness, but even in these towns to best see the stars or any aurora, get out of town. If your willing to stay at a resort, there are a number of options I like on the Gunflint Trail. A favorite, but a bit pricey is Bearskin Lodge. They have both cabins and a few lodge rooms. There is even a great wilderness tavern near by named the Trail Center.
I can not stress to highly about being careful in terms of winter camping. It can be very special, but one needs the proper equipment. My middle son worked summers while in graduate as an outfitter on the Gunfint Trail. He knows what he is doing.
Hi,
I am keen to view the aurora boreal is however I am scared of the spots which are too dark and often in wilderness are too dangerous to be there…wild animals,hunters,looters…I would like to know if there is any safer place for public viewing of the aurora borealis? I can travel way up north from Wisconsin and would like to be safe at the same time.
We have been to Marquette (had too much light pollution) and Hancock, we went to view the aurora but it was terrifying to see there wasn’t a soul in that place,Copper Harbour where we went and we weren’t able to see any lights there at all!
Thanks for helping!
Ash:
While I understand your concern over wilderness areas, you are actually much, much safer out in the middle of nowhere than a city. Wild animals are scared of humans. Wolves will leave the area fast if they sense humans around. I actually love seeing wolves in the wild, and always hope for a wind in my face as I hike because this means I am downwind of animals and they can not smell me with their superior sense of small.
I am afriad your comments about hunters and looters begs the question if you understand folks who live in remote parts of America. We love the wilderness, and most people will always check to insure a person is okay if a car is stopped on a remote road. While I do not hunt anymore, please understand that hunting is no different than attending a sports event or concert in a big city … a great leisure time activity. Friends of mine who hunt do this because they enjoy being out in the wild, often with friends. The one concern I would share about hunting is that it is smart to not hike in the woods during deer hunting season. Deer hunting season only last a few weeks during November, and I do not mind turning over the trails for a short time to my friends who hunt. Having said that, hunters never hunt after sunset or before sunrise. Thus, if a good Aurora display arises I am perfectly happy being in the woods during hunting season.
Please consider visiting northern Minnesota, or the Copper Harbor area once again. Unfortunately Northern Lights displays are difficult to predict. I would never visit my region just for the hope of seeing the Aurora. The BWCA, the North Shore of Lake Superior, and the Copper Harbor region of the U.P are drop dead gorgeous. Taking a hike in these areas is almost a religious experience. The wildlife including birds is fantastic. At night the Milky Way is an amazing sight. You will see stars in numbers a city dweller can only imagine, and if you are lucky … the Aurora Borealis.
Thanks for your prompt response.I have never really been in the wilderness and thus I have little to no knowledge.You did give a great insight and I appreciate it. I strongly agree with you that it is better to visit the viewing area before night.
I will try the sights mentioned in your blog.I must say it’s an amazing blog I stumbled upon after googling for a few weeks. Thanks a tonne!
Hi, do you think it’s going to be possible to see northern lights in December or January?
If it is possible, what should I most concern about?
Viewing the Aurora Borealis in the winter is very possible in northern Minnesota. Read both of these posts in particular and dress very warmly … overnight lows sometimes reach -40F. Always, always bring an extra set of car keys which are in your parka, not a bag or something else which could get locked in your car.
Planning your winter Northern Lights trip:
https://www.365daysofbirds.com/2017/01/25/planning-winter-minnesota-northern-lights-trip/
Planning your Northern Lights trip:
https://www.365daysofbirds.com/2017/09/09/optimizing-your-probability-of-seeing-northern-lights/
Rich
Hi, do you give classes/tours on the Aurora Borealis? I know the information is here but at first glance it is bit much to digest. Any chance of a notification group and any hopes for Aurora in July? Thanks a million!
Calvin:
While I do not give classes, I have been know to let folks know what public boat launch north of Duluth I might be hanging out while watching the Northern Lights. Anyone who joins me I am happy to explain the tricks to photographing the Aurora.
In terms of notifications, the best way to find out when a display is upon us is by spending a few dollars and purchasing one of the recommended apps. Finally, while an Aurora is possible in July, they happen much more frequently as we get to the fall equinox.
Rich
Thank you so much for the kind, quick reply.
Thanks Rich! Planning to go north instead of south for spring break this year. caught a glimpse while in Idaho this summer and now hope to see the lights in March in Duluth! will drive up from iowa. total rookie so thinking of where to stay. No clue on setting on camera but will practice and grab the hubby’s digital. Thanks for helping in advance! Any place to stay in/near duluth that might be warm to watch for them? LOL
The Grand Ely Lodge on Shagawa Lake should work … many of the rooms face north looking over the lake away from the town’s lights. If the lights start to pop I would still get away from town.
Thanks. Only hoping to go as far as Duluthish.
Are the northern lights showing now north of Duluth?
Sorry … it is impossible for me to answer questions like this in real time, but if you have a Facebook account, search for the group: Northern Lights Lake Superior Region. I founded and still administer this group. It has over 13,000 members, and your question would be answered in real time.
Hi Calvin … a second answer to your question. It looks highly likely that I will teach a free outdoor / wildlife photography class this Fall in the Duluth area. Details are still being worked out, but I will post on my blog once registration is open.
Wondering what time is best to view Aurora Lights at Lake Vermilion up north during early August? Which way is best to track Aurora activity? Thanks!
Advance forecasts for Northern Lights, anything over three days out are almost worthless. Having said that remember these facts in planning a trip to northern Minnesota in early August.
1. Try to avoid nights with close to full moons. Excessive moonlight washes out Aurora displays.
2. The later in the month the better for two basic reasons … nights get longer which means more time for a possible display, and the closer to the Fall equinox on September 21st … the better. Auroras seem to be more active near the first day of spring and fall.
3. True darkness lasts from 2 hours after sunset to 2 hours before sunrise which is another reason for picking a later date all other things being equal.
It looks like the KP level to view the Northern Lights in the next few days in good. Do you think it will be too cloudy to view? Will you be looking?
JC: Forecasting cloud cover is difficult, but my Northern Lights page has a tool from the National Weather Service. Follow the link, and learn how to use the tool to move forward in time. The map will tell you the expected percentage of cloud cover … at different times of the day, and days in the future. Only you can make the determination whether the drive is worth the risk. Both the forecasts for Northern Lights and weather / clouds are a crap shoot … your call.
Dear Rich,
First of all thanks a lot for this wonderful information. Me and my husband are planning to visit Minnesota on 11-15 Jan 2018. I am looking forward to view some aurora display. I was wondering if you arrange for aurora trips or know of any tours in the area ? We usually prefer to wander on our own but for northern lights I believe you really need a good amount of knowledge to visit the right spot at right time. Any help will be much appreciated.
Thanks,
Archana.
Archana:
As far as I know there is noone who leads Northern Lights tours in Minnesota, me included. However, if I were going to visit northern Minnesota and wanted to see the northern lights I would pick on of these two lodges … for different reasons. I have no financial relationship with either of these lodges.
1. Grand Ely Lodge (get room facing north). From your room you should be able to see a display of the Northern Lights, but it a good display was in progress it would be essential to get out of town (i.e. Ely) to get away from the city lights. While Ely is a small town, the lights makes a difference. You should have an app which would alert you to an Aurora being likely. The town if Ely is a great northwoods town. The folks at the front desk could arrange dog sled tours, directions to the Bear Research Center, etc.
https://www.grandelylodge.com/
2. Bearskin Lodge on the Gunflint Trail … inland from Grand Marais. They claim the staff will alert guests if an Aurora shines overhead. The lodge is a fantastic, albeit expensive lodge. Make certain you stay in the lodge, not the cabins. The lodge has wifi, which the app mentioned prior will utilize. If the Northern Lights shine you will need to walk outside and down the hill to cross the lake … about 400 yards. The lodge allows you to sample the wilderness … dogsledding, cross-country skiing, snowshoeing, hot tubbing … right from the front door of the lodge. Skies are very dark. Have stayed there with my own family. Like the place.
http://www.bearskin.com/
Good luck,
Rich
Love the photos and all the info. We are in an RV group with Bill and Phillis and they gave me your site. All your information will make my photographing of the northern lights much more enjoyable.
I look forward to following you posts.
Connie
Cool! My email address may be found on the “About Me” page. I remember talking about you folks with my Bill and Phillis while down in Texas. Reach out with questions (and I also invite anyone to contact me directly)
Will the end of December (22-23) be too late to catch the Northern Lights?
Thanks in advance for any tips!
The Northern Lights are viewable all year long in northern Minnesota. We are into the advance 28 day forecast period for the Aurora, but as noted on this web page … the long range advance forecast is notoriously unreliable. As the Christmas holdays and your visit to our area draws closer use the 3 day advanced forecast to learn if a display is likely. On the day of your hoped for Aurora watching, use Ovation Aurora … also linked on this page. Good luck and Merry Auroroa Borealis Christmas.
I am planning a trip to the Duluth area this weekend October 14th and 15th the ratings for the Northern Lights is at a 5 can you tell me where a good spot is to view them and if I’m in the correct area I’ve been reading your post in your blogs it appears like there is a place called Boulder Lake if I’m correct that you went to can you tell me if that is still a good spot also can you tell me is there anything that you can see that shows whether or not the lights may or may not be visible or have any good tips for me this is the first time experience but have always wanted to view them
Boulder Lake is your best viewing spot near Duluth. In terms of this weekend, or any day where the advance forecast for an Aurora is favorable, do NOT head out unless Ovation Aurora is 45 GW or higher. This tool is linked from this page. In addition, pay attention to trends. If Ovation is at 45 GW but trending down, you may wish to stay home. If it is trending upwards, then heading out is a good idea. Remember that Ovation Aurora is an immediate term forecast and is updated every 20 minutes. Thus, check around sunset, and recheck a few times over the next hour. True darkness does not arrive till about 2 hours after sundown.
Thanks for the reply I’m a little confused as to where you check the GW 45 rating at also I am planning on going to lutsen mn. , can you tell me am I headed in the wrong direction I’ve had so many different hotels tell me to go north the further north the better I had others tell him to go to Wisconsin I’ve had some tummy stated Duluth I really don’t know which direction I’m supposed to go now but hotels were filling up fast so I jumped on one in that town I have until tomorrow morning to go to cancel that place if I need to please help me if you can thank you very much
You are always increasing your odds by travelling increasingly further north. Lutsen is further north than anywhere in Wisconsin. Viewing the Northern Lights will be not be likely from your actual motel due to limited view to the actual northern skies and the lights from the Lutsen area. If I were travelling to Lutsen, I might personally go the few extra miles to Grand Marais. Be prepared to head out a bit after sunset to known viewing spots IF the Ovation numbers are good. This page has a link to viewing spots towards the bottom which utilizes Google maps. In answer to your specific question, the power number (Gw) is found near the upper right of the Ovation Aurora web page.
We are planning a trip to Lake Vermilion – Ludlow’s Resort for 2 days – Sep 29th and Sep 30th. Aurora forecast is at High. Any suggestions regarding points where we can drive and observe this mesmerizing phenomenon. How we can figure out the timings of visibility?
Big thanks for your help in advance!!
A Northern Lights display can happen anytime during a 24 hour period. True darkness occurs about 2 hours after sunset through 2 hours before sunrise. During the daylights hours when you first get to Ludlow’s Resort ask their staff if there are any good spots on the lake with views to the north w/o any bright lights near by. Visit the suggested spots in the daytime such that you are not stumbling around in the dark in an unfamiliar spot. If Ludlows does not know of a spot, try looking on Google Maps (satellite mode) for public boat launches on lakes in the region which face north. Once again, check out the locations in the daytime, and also only pick locations where there are no bright lights, or cities to the north (within 10 miles). Finally, Aurora Forecasts are very unreliable, but when the sun goes down repeatedly check Ovation Aurora from your guest room (site linked via my blog). If the power readings rise about 45gw, get outside. Check Ovation frequently through the night as Ovation is updated about every 15 minutes.
We will be in Grand Portage/Isle Royale in September. Any chance of seeing the northern lights and any suggestions of best sites
Should be a great time and location. Isle Royale is super dark, and if the Aurora dances, assuming you have views to the north from your particular location, one may easily view the Northern Lights. With respect to Grand Portage, get out of town to get away from the town’ lights. Not to far from Grand Portage is the Arrowhead Trail (goes inland from Hovland, Minnesota). Towards the end of the trail is a BWCA entry point and bridge (within 200 yards of each other). Both are fantastic viewing locations. Here some Auroras I saw from that location.
With respect to whether the Northern Lights will shine … way to early to predict. Use the forecast tools linked via this blog as the day approaches.
Will the Northern Lights be visible in the summer months (July) in Northern Minnesota?
Joshua: It is possible to view the Aurora Borealis in the middle of the Summer in northern Minnesota, but the viewing window each night is short. For instance, on the longest day of the year, June 21st in terms of light, the sun does not set till well after 9 pm, and rises shortly around 5 am. When the fact that true darkness only occurs 2 hours after sunset, and 2 hours before sunrise, the viewing window on June 21st would only be from approximately 11 pm to 3 am. Thus possible, but not likely on the equinox. Come August days are shorter and the viewing window would be greater.
I am planning a trip to northern Minnesota (International Falls, Grand Marais, Grand Portage and Duluth in July. Will the Northern Lights be visible in the summer months?
Wow what a great site….I love the northern lights, birding, skiing info…..Thanks
Hi. When is the best time to view the northern lights?
It will always vary based upon conditions, but at least two hours after sunset and two hours before sunrise. The sky is not truly dark except during that period of the night.
What a fantastic informational site! Thank you.
This blog is wonderful! Thank you for all the great information, tips and resources! We are planning a trip this fall to hopefully see the northern lights for the first time!
If you can plan your trip for a time of the month without much moonlight, you will greatly enhance your chances of seeing the Aurora. In addition, the closer you get to the Canadian border in Minnesota, the better your chances. Finally, even if you are in a small town like Ely or Grand Marais, get out if town to lessen the effect of light pollution. Good viewing spots tend to be lake boat access ramps which face north. Using Google Maps in satellite mode can help you find potential viewing spots wherever you will be visiting. Good luck!
This is a great blog! Thank you for the information and resources! You will definitely make our birding trip more enjoyable, and hopefully my first view of northern lights!!
Kansas City & Oklahoma